"It's not our fault," the cry goes up as hedge funds start reporting their losses. Chief among them David Viniar, CFO of Goldman Sachs, who says “We were seeing things that were 25-standard deviation moves, several days in a row".
No, you weren't. You were seeing things that your model told you were 25 standard deviations away from the norm. And then, the next day, it told you that you were seeing them again.
Now, from my dimly-remembered statistics lectures, something 7 standard deviations away from the mean of a normal distribution will occur on the order of one in a hundred billion times. Something 25 standard deviations away... well, it's meaninglessly unlikely. If you wrote an asset price on every atom in the solar system, one of them might be that far off the mean.
Or, alternatively, the model might be wrong, and be vastly underestimating the probability of improbable events. The Fat Tail strikes again. But it's depressing Viniar didn't say "well, obviously, our models were wrong" rather than bringing in Infinite Improbability...


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Comments (1)
I'm just glad Douglas Adams wasn't around to see this. Rather than flying whales and vases of petunias, we'd have large-cap stocks going down while small-cap stocks went up. Which isn't nearly as funny.
Posted by Felix Salmon | August 15, 2007 3:22 PM
Posted on August 15, 2007 15:22