Pimco's Bill Gross is concerned about the CDS market. At present default rates are extremely low by historical standards - the lowest since 1981, according to Moody's - and set to rise this year. Given this, Gross argues, CDS sellers are looking at the thick end of $250 billion in losses this year:
If total investment grade and junk bond defaults approach historical norms of 1¼% in 2008 (Moody’s and S&P forecast something close) then $500 billion of these default contracts will be triggered resulting in losses of $250 billion or more to the "protection selling" party once recoveries are inserted into the equation. To put that number in perspective, many street estimates ascribe similar losses to subprime mortgages, a derivative category substantially distinct from CDS insurance. Of course, "buyers of protection" will be on the other "winning" side, but the point is that as capital gains and capital losses slosh from one side of the shadow system’s boat to the other, casualties and shipwrecks are the inevitable consequence.
This has provoked a good deal of discussion. Felix Salmon at Portfolio argues that Gross may be missing the point:
...But let's take another look at exactly what direction the capital is sloshing in. Yes, the sellers of protection will be remitting $250 billion to the buyers of protection as a result of those 1.25% of credits which have defaulted. But at the same time, the buyers of protection will be remitting all of their insurance premiums to the sellers of protection on the 98.75% of credits which haven't defaulted. And on $45 trillion of CDS, those premiums are likely to add up to a lot of money - more, I'll hazard, than $250 billion. In other words, if default rates stay relatively low - and a 1.25% default rate is relatively low - then, in aggregate, the sellers of protection are likely to continue to make money, not lose it.
This is true as far as it goes, but there are three reasons still to be worried about CDS.
First, the problem of counterparty risk is very real (even though that's not what Gross was talking about) - Wolfgang Munchau in the FT makes the point that
...we might be tempted to conclude that this all is irrelevant, since this is only insurance, which is a zero-sum financial game. The money is still there, only somebody else has got it. But in the light of the current liquidity conditions in financial markets, that would be a complacent view to take.If protection sellers were to default en masse, so too could some protection buyers who erroneously assume that they are protected. Given that the CDS market is largely unregulated there is no guarantee of sufficient liquidity behind each contract... The subprime crisis came fairly close to destabilising the global financial system. A CDS crisis, under a pessimistic scenario, could produce a global financial meltdown...
Second, just because the CDS selling sector should be all right in aggregatedoesn't mean that all its individual members will be all right. There are plenty of other sources of pressure, and it's not impossible that a heavier-than-average CDS loss, hitting an already-strained institution, may tip it over into insolvency. (With all the knockon effects that implies.)
Third, this may be worse than we think. In a worst-case scenario - when, as a consequence of a US downturn, default rates don't just return to the historical average but overshoot to, say, 4% - losses could reach $1.4 trillion, according to a BNP analysis. The counterparty risk could affect 25% of total sellers. And, the analyst adds:
As risks rise, Cicione cautioned, then risk aversion alone can push leveraged players in the market under.
"With counterparty risk, you don't really need to have realized losses to have a problem," he said. "A hedge fund can go down because it is being asked for more collateral for a margin call, even though it has not had any defaults."


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Comments (2)
Unless the various initiatives aimed at centrally clearing OTC derivatives trades become hugely popular, counterparty risk will remain a serious concern for those in the market for a long way into the future.
I don't buy into Pimco's CDS armageddon theory, however. A recent note from RBS' credit derivatives strategy team pointed out that it's not really a case of two discrete opposing camps dominating the CDS market: namely pure protection buyers and pure protection sellers. Instead, many sellers of protection are also buyers of protection, and vice versa.
In which case, as a consequence of netting, total market losses are likely to add up to much lower than $250 billion and will be far less disruptive than Mr. Gross suggests.
Posted by Mark Pengelly | January 15, 2008 4:18 PM
Posted on January 15, 2008 16:18
Further commentary on this from The Economist, here.
Posted by Mark Pengelly | February 1, 2008 9:11 AM
Posted on February 1, 2008 09:11