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Problems with interconnectedness

If anyone out there is still afflicted by excess of optimism (well, there might be someone) I can recommend the World Economic Forum's Global Risks 2008 report.

This, in particular, seems to be spot on:

...three major observations
stand out:
• Risk ownership has been decentralized: The growth of securitization and risk transfer has led to risks being disaggregated and spread to diverse owners...
• Risk transmission has become more important: Increasing interconnectedness has multiplied the points of potential failure and increased the significance of systemic linkages...
• Risk management is critical...
On balance, these developments appear to have increased the financial system’s capacity to assume and distribute risk, and they also appear to have made it more stable... But, as recent developments highlight, this appears only to be true under “normal” market conditions. The complexity and near infinite feedback loops of the modern financial system have exposed it to a small risk of very large systemic shocks. Some analysts postulate that the financial system may indeed be more pro-cyclical if the growing dispersion of risk is not coupled with a better understanding of the driving factors of risk segmentation and diversification.
Hence, we may be facing a paradox: while the financial system has been made more efficient and stable in normal times, it is now also more prone to excessive instability in really bad times. At the same time, the increased importance of the financial sector in the global economy means that the impact of financial instability on the real economy has also increased...

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