« The Bank of England is long subprime! | Main | What we've got here is a failure to communicate »

What crisis?... Oh, yeah. That crisis.

Well, the Bank of England may be optimistic, but no one else is; the Fed's expanded the TAF (which was welcomed) and loosened the criteria on acceptable collateral for the TSLF.

Various datapoints, not all in agreement on this:
The TED spread is improving
Satyajit Das predicts that the crisis could go on for years
(A Credit Suisse paper I received today says the same:

"There appears to be a link between the length of time it takes for bank lending to recover and exposure to problem loans – in 2001, 25% ofloan end-markets were severely impaired and it took one year for lending to recover.
In 1990, the numbers were 48% and two years. This time, 70% of end-markets are
affected, suggesting a workout phase of perhaps three years.; (ii) A negative
feedback loop cannot be ruled out...
Finally (iii), We could see a more volatile economy. Much of the last 30 years has
been characterized by declining household spending/real GDP growth volatility as
financial innovation and the ability to leverage has helped to smooth out the bumps.
With the economy now de-leveraging and financial innovation stalling, the economy
looks more prone to external shocks..."

Or a more optimistic take from John Jansen, who reckons this is the start of the upturn.

Post a comment

(If you haven't left a comment here before, you may need to be approved by the site owner before your comment will appear. Until then, it won't appear on the entry. Thanks for waiting.)

Risk 15% Limited Subscription Offer