Well, the Bank of England may be optimistic, but no one else is; the Fed's expanded the TAF (which was welcomed) and loosened the criteria on acceptable collateral for the TSLF.
Various datapoints, not all in agreement on this:
The TED spread is improving
Satyajit Das predicts that the crisis could go on for years
(A Credit Suisse paper I received today says the same:
"There appears to be a link between the length of time it takes for bank lending to recover and exposure to problem loans – in 2001, 25% ofloan end-markets were severely impaired and it took one year for lending to recover.
In 1990, the numbers were 48% and two years. This time, 70% of end-markets are
affected, suggesting a workout phase of perhaps three years.; (ii) A negative
feedback loop cannot be ruled out...
Finally (iii), We could see a more volatile economy. Much of the last 30 years has
been characterized by declining household spending/real GDP growth volatility as
financial innovation and the ability to leverage has helped to smooth out the bumps.
With the economy now de-leveraging and financial innovation stalling, the economy
looks more prone to external shocks..."
Or a more optimistic take from John Jansen, who reckons this is the start of the upturn.


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