The efforts to bring in central counterparty clearing for CDS (deadline - end of this month) aren't a bad thing, but it's hard not to see them as a solution without a problem. The last few weeks have seen CDS tested in the US (Fannie and Freddie, Lehman, WaMu) and in Europe (Landsbanki, Glitnir, Kaupthing) without any dire consequences - although there are suggestions that the auctions showed CDS to be a less than perfect hedge.
Of course, there have been some sufferers - Swiss Re for one lost money quarter after quarter on its portfolio CDS, but that was really more a mortgage market misjudgement than something intrinsic to CDS.
Lots of people who should know better (including, most recently, Niall Ferguson in a talk at the Royal Geographical Society this week) have been citing the largely meaningless multi-trillion-dollar gross notionals of CDS as though they symbolised some sort of terrible threat. The results of the various auctions have torpedoed this idea - and the associated worries that the CDS market was peculiarly opaque. Cutting delays in processing and central clearing are good things, but they shouldn't be seen as staving off a crisis.
This Alphaville post welcomes the DTCC's involvement as a needed counter to CDS hysteria. Salmon is growing incensed on the same subject ("...you've got yourself an almost perfectly wrong-headed argument. Did a wave of foreclosures help to bring down highly-leveraged institutions with significant real-estate exposure, among them Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers? Yes. Did "haywire derivatives contracts" in general, and CDS in particular, play a much bigger role? No...")
The last word goes to a commentator who had previously stayed quiet on the credit crisis: HM Queen Elizabeth II.
"...The origins and effects of the crisis were explained to her by Professor Luis Garicano, director of research at the LSE's management department...
Prof Garicano said afterwards: "The Queen asked me: 'If these things were so large, how come everyone missed them? Why did nobody notice it'?"
When Garicano explained that at "every stage, someone was relying on somebody else and everyone thought they were doing the right thing", she commented: "Awful."


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Comments (1)
Your contrarian stance has its merits btw, but you do not explain why the instrument is not noxious in the first place. Cosmic notional values have nothing to do with reality, coming one default event makes it real all the way down the tubes. How come you are so certain the Lehman demise have no further aftereffects? The cash settlements in $ drained monetary markets. Some 200+ bln outstanding are not disclosed, nobody knows who owns them and how will they be settled?
If such opaqueness (in such numbers) looks innocuous, sorry you are heading casino side.
The precise reason why the danger is far from over is the inbound catastrophic mechanism: when one player defaults, the other come in chain reaction. You know it, but decide to gamble as far as to goes. OK. One fine day it goes bust, because after reaching certain point it is bound to. The point is stability. No one tested where the point is, but by the looks of it, we are already there or close to. After the treshold all bets are off, system is unhinged. Unstable. Collapse. Why? Because the mechanism of innocuous instruments is flawed, gives positive feedback in reverse loop, where deleveraging takes place. You see it now. No financial wizardry from Oz is needed to understand it, it is simple regulation mechanism, known for over a century. What is not known, however, is the stability point of CDS, because the market is unregulated. You cannot know therefore if we are safe now or not. You can only bet. So your article is no more than an contrary bet.
Maybe you shuld open some booking on CDS-disaster? We would have then some palpable numbers...
Posted by zezowaty Zorro | November 8, 2008 11:22 AM
Posted on November 8, 2008 11:22